A surge in tax refunds this year is expected to boost domestic leisure travel spending by more than $5 billion, providing a timely lift to the U.S. travel industry as Americans plan their summer vacations.

Americans are projected to receive $57 billion more in tax refunds in 2026 than in 2025, largely due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Economic analysis by U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics indicates that about 9% of each additional refund dollar will be spent on travel, translating to roughly $5.1 billion in additional domestic leisure travel spending this year. Middle-income households account for $3.5 billion (69%) of this increase.

According to the IRS filing season data, about 2/3 of tax refunds are typically issued between mid-February and mid-April. Economic modeling shows that between 6% and 10% of incremental refund income is likely to be spent on travel, depending on household income levels and spending patterns. The majority of the projected spending will come from middle-income households, which are expected to account for about 70% of the additional travel spending generated by the larger refunds.

The refund-driven boost could also coincide with major tourism draws in 2026, including the FIFA World Cup and the America 250 celebrations, potentially amplifying travel demand during the summer travel season.