Travel Forecast

Travel Forecast Summary:

The U.S. Travel Fall 2025 update projects slower growth for travel in 2025, but higher growth rates in 2026 and beyond. Spending is buoyed by continued growth in domestic leisure travel despite economic concerns. International inbound travel is projected to decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020, but to resume growth in 2026 driven by U.S. hosted events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations.

For 2025, total U.S. travel spending is projected to grow 1.1% to $1.35 trillion, and will reach $1.49 trillion by 2029. Inbound international visits are projected to decrease 6.3% from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025.

The forecast data is driven by Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model, and data is presented in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars for consistency.

Data Insights:

Domestic Leisure Travel

• The continued strength of American consumers contributes by far the largest component of U.S. travel spending. Domestic leisure travel is forecast to grow 1.9% to $895 billion in 2025. Consumer sentiment shows concern about inflation and general economic conditions, but Americans continued to prioritize travel.
• Prices of travel-related items and services have been relatively stable, showing smaller increases than for the economy overall.

International Inbound Travel

• Travel to the United States is projected to reverse course and fall to just 85% of 2019 levels in 2025.
• Total inbound travel spending is forecast to fall 3.2% to $173 billion for the year. Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat.
• With outbound international travel continuing to grow, the travel trade deficit for 2025 is tracking to reach nearly $70 billion.

An upcoming mega-decade of events has the potential to drive record levels of travel to the U.S

• The FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th Anniversary, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the Men’s and Women’s Rugby World Cups in 2031 and 2033 and the 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City have the potential to bring more visits than ever.
• International visits are forecast to resume growth in 2026 with 70.4 million visits, and surpass historic highs with 81.9 million in 2029.
• U.S. Travel forecasts a 6.3% decrease for inbound international visits in 2025 and 3.7% growth in 2026.

Business travel rebound continues at muted pace

• Domestic business travel spending is forecast to grow 1.4% in 2025, with group travel at a slightly higher pace than transient.
• Those rates are expected to improve and exceed leisure growth rates in 2027 through 2029 as business investment solidifies and overall economic conditions improve.

Despite lowered growth expectations, risks remain

• Consumer uncertainty remains significant, and if broader economic conditions deteriorate travel is likely to decrease as well.
• Additionally, the U.S. risks further decreasing international inbound visits based on potential increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets.

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck, which provides context and details for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under "downloads," is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.