U.S. Travel Forecast Points to Steady Growth Ahead

U.S. travel spending will hit a record $1.37 trillion in 2026 and climb to $1.42 trillion in 2027, according to the latest U.S. Travel Forecast. Proof that Americans are continuing to prioritize travel even as inflation, economic uncertainty and global instability weigh on household budgets.

The forecast, powered by modeling from Tourism Economics, projects steady, domestic-led growth for the travel industry in 2026 and beyond, with total spending rising 3.4% in 2027 (inflation-adjusted).

"Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy," said Joshua Friedlander, Vice President, Research, U.S. Travel Association. "Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions and business connections that happen through travel."

Domestic travel remains the backbone of the industry, accounting for 87% of all travel spending. Domestic leisure is the only major travel segment to exceed pre-pandemic spending in real terms, with spending projected at $909 billion in 2026.

International inbound travel, which declined in 2025, is expected to resume growth in 2026. Visitor spending from international travelers is projected to rise 1.6% to $178 billion, and international visitation is forecast to increase 3.4% to 70.6 million, though full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2029.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across U.S. cities, represents a key opportunity to accelerate that recovery. At the same time, inbound travel's slow rebound is widening the U.S. travel trade deficit, which reached $72 billion in 2025 as outbound travel outpaces international visitation.

Business travel spending is forecast to grow modestly, rising 0.8% to $319 billion in 2026, as companies hold travel budgets steady while continuing to prioritize in-person meetings and events.

The forecast also flags downside risks: persistent inflation and energy prices, geopolitical conflict, softening consumer confidence and barriers facing international visitors, including long visa wait times and global perceptions of the United States.

See the full forecast update.

The Spring 2026 update extends the travel forecast outlook through 2030 and presents data in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars using Tourism Economics’ forecasting model.