What 72 Hours in February Revealed

1. What Happened

In the span of three days, February 20th through 22nd, the following events occurred: the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s tariff authority, the White House immediately signaled 15% replacement tariffs through a different legal path, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a Q4 2025 GDP estimate showing slower growth, the Department of Homeland Security announced a pause on TSA PreCheck and Global Entry, and that same announcement was reversed within hours, due in part to swift advocacy by U.S. Travel Association.

On their own, none of these events break the economy. But taken together, they point to something bigger: it is not any single event that matters most. It is the constant back and forth.

2. Three Types of Uncertainty, All at Once

Policy uncertainty:

Tariff rules are struck down and rebuilt within hours. The Supreme Court ruling dropped the average tariff rate from about 12.7% to 8.3%, according to the Oxford Economics Tariff Monitor (February 20, 2026). But the administration’s quick move toward replacement tariffs suggests rates may end up right back where they started. Internal modeling provided to U.S. Travel Association by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics business) shows that the economic boost from lower tariffs would be small, and that the economy is less sensitive to tariff changes than many expected.

Economic uncertainty:

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, growth slowed in Q4. Each shutdown extension shifts the outlook. Oxford Economics describes the likely impact on growth as a “ding, not a derailment.”

Communication uncertainty:

Official announcements were made, walked back, and corrected in rapid succession. The PreCheck situation is a clear example: a major travel program was announced as suspended, then confirmed as operational, all within hours. The quick reversal shows that organized industry advocacy can deliver results. But the conflicting signals themselves add to the sense of instability.

3. How This Hits Travel: Through Confidence, Not Tariffs

Tariffs do not directly change hotel room prices or airline schedules. What they do change is how confident people and businesses feel about spending money on travel. That confidence shapes corporate travel budgets, convention planning timelines, business investment decisions, and whether international visitors choose the U.S. or go somewhere else.

When the rules keep changing, people and businesses shorten their planning windows. They book later. They hold off on big commitments. Risk to travel is compounded not only by the change in tariff rate but by the reshuffling of policy as well..

4. What to Watch Next

If the recent 72 hours are a guide, the near-term outlook for travel will depend less on any single data point and more on whether uncertainty continues or eases. Here are the key signals to track.

Oxford Economics expects the administration to rebuild tariff levels through other legal paths. That means the overall trade picture may not change much, even as the legal details shift. For travel, this suggests that the drag on confidence from policy uncertainty is not going away soon.

5. The Bigger Picture

Those 72 hours present a clear picture of the conditions in which the travel economy is now operating. The economy is slowing, not crashing. Tariff effects are small, not dramatic. But the speed at which policy is being torn and rebuilt, combined with conflicting government signals, creates a cloud of uncertainty that weighs on planning and investment. Travel depends on long planning cycles and forward bookings. Certainty is what businesses and travelers need to commit. Ongoing unpredictability is what they are dealing with instead. Understanding this reality, and communicating it clearly, is essential to positioning the travel economy in the months ahead.