COVID-19 Travel Industry Research

While the latest travel data reflects the dire situation that we face, it is very useful when speaking with Congress, the administration and government leaders about the urgent need to provide relief to our industry now. We also know that real-time insights are critical to detecting shifts in traveler behavior and sentiment so that you can plan appropriately for the future.

Note: This page will be updated every  Friday with new travel industry data. 

Weekly Analysis

Analysis by Tourism Economics shows a week-by-week outlook on travel spending in the U.S. The analysis also looks at regional and state-by-state breakdowns. Findings from the November 5 report: 

• Travel spending ended its two-week slide last week and grew 3% from the prior week
  • In the week ending October 31, travel spending tallied just $12.9 billion and reflected a 42% drop below last year's levels (a $9.3 billion loss)—an improvement from the 44% drop in the prior week
  • Since the end of the summer travel season, weekly travel spending has remained relatively flat, with the percentage loss oscillating between -45% and -41% in each of the past eight weeks
• Many Midwestern states that had been regressing in recent weeks experienced strong rebounds, with Montana, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota among the biggest gainers
• The slow return of air travel has been a boon for Puerto Rico, which had been among the five worst performing states and territories for much of the pandemic and is now in the middle of the pack
• October concluded with $41.6 billion of travel spending losses—a 6% increase from September and the first increase in monthly travel spending losses since April
• Since the beginning of March, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in $443 billion in cumulative losses for the U.S. travel economy
• The continual depressed level of travel spending has caused a loss of $57 billion in federal, state and local tax revenue since March 1

Travel Industry Employment: Recently Updated Outlook (October 6, 2020)

• 39% of direct travel jobs have vanished over the past seven months with 3.5 million direct travel jobs lost
• Without immediate aid, 50% of all direct travel jobs will be lost by December—an additional loss of 948,000 jobs, and a total loss of 4.5 million direct travel jobs
  
  • 33% of all jobs lost in the U.S. economy are attributable to declines in direct travel employment. This will rise to 45% without immediate aid (assuming a stable overall jobs market)
• In terms of total travel-supported jobs (including indirect and induced employment), so far 4.2 million jobs have been lost, and without immediate aid, 5.5 million travel-supported jobs will be lost.

Tracking Traveler Trends:

The latest travel indicators all performed slightly worse last week than over the past couple of weeks, likely due to rising COVID-19 cases and a general sense of pessimism about the course of the virus.

Road Travel: Arrivalist Trends Tracker

The Daily Travel Index from Arrivalist measures consumer road trips of 50 miles or more in all 50 U.S. states. It now provides year-over-year comparisons.

• Road travel declined moderately last week on a year-over-year (y/y) basis
  • Road travel was 20% down y/y last week, significantly lower than in recent weeks, and had its worst performance since the end of July

Air Travel: Passenger Screenings at TSA

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) updates passenger screening numbers on a daily basis, providing a comparison to the same time last year.

• Daily TSA screenings slowed down significantly last week, as can be expected leading up to the holiday season, but also declined slightly on a y/y basis
  • The latest seven-day average of daily screenings (through Tuesday November 3) was 8% lower than the previous week and 64% lower than the same period last year (slightly worse than the 63% y/y decline the prior week)
  • The 64% y/y decline marks the first reversal in y/y improvement in two months, but it was likely influenced by a considerable slowdown in travel on Election Day (-71% y/y) compared to the same weekday last year

Tracking Search and Booking Behavior 

ADARA's Traveler Trends Tracker taps into real-time travel data on travel-related consumer behavior including hotel volume and flight bookings for both business and leisure travel. 

In addition, ADARA directly provides U.S. Travel with national and state-level booking data, summarized below:

• Domestic air and hotel bookings for future travel declined from -56% y/y in the previous week to -60% y/y
• Regional differences remained strong:
  • Domestic bookings to Wyoming (-16%), Montana (-18%) and Idaho (-35%) again experienced the lowest y/y declines
  • Domestic bookings to New York (-81%), Massachusetts (-74%) and Connecticut (-72%) again experienced the highest y/y declines
• International bookings for future travel to the U.S. declined from -60% y/y in the previous week to -63% y/y

Traveler and Consumer Sentiment Survey Results

This weekly survey by Destinations Analysts tracks key consumer perceptions, attitudes and behaviors of American business and leisure travelers. Key findings from November 2:   

• Six in 10 Americans (61%) expect that the pandemic situation will get worse in the next month, up more than five percentage points in one week
• The worsening feelings about the pandemic continue to negatively impact sentiment towards travel in the near-term:
  • Less than half (48%) agree they are excited about taking a getaway in the next month and openness to travel inspiration decreased again (44%)
  • Confidence in being able to travel safely in the current environment eroded five percentage points in the past three weeks (27% from 32%)
  • Half agree that traveling right now feels irresponsible and over 40% feel guilty traveling

• The declining sentiment towards travel has also affected behavior, including for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday:
  • While 14% definitively say they will travel for Thanksgiving, down slightly from 16% the week of August 17, those that felt uncertain about it in August have largely decided to stay home
  • Of those traveling for the holiday, nearly 80% primarily plan to spend time with friends and family in their homes
  • While half plan to stay in a home of a friend or relative, 18% say they will stay in a luxury hotel and the same percentage plan to stay in a 3- or 4-star hotel
• Most respondents agree that they plan to travel more domestically and prioritize travel with family over the next two years (following the pandemic) more so than before the pandemic
  • Nearly a quarter wish to visit more destinations on their bucket list and have new travel experiences

Ipsos Americans Adapting Holiday Plans, October 31, 2020

• As concerns over the coronavirus remain high, there are few signs of individual behaviors changing
  • The number of Americans that have visited friends or relatives (49%), gone out to eat (42%) and self-quarantined (14%) is stable compared to the past few weeks

• Concerns are emerging about the holiday season, with two-thirds (68%) making adaptations to how they will celebrate and changing how they view holiday travel
  • Two-thirds say traveling for the upcoming holidays poses a large or moderate risk
  • More than half of Americans (54%) have begun to make plans about how they will celebrate the holiday season
  • The most common adaptation for Thanksgiving celebrations are having a smaller gathering (35%) and not seeing family or friends they normally would (21%)
  • A slim majority, 52%, say they are celebrating Thanksgiving this year with just their immediate family. More than one in 10 (14%) are not planning to celebrate at all

iMeet Survey of Meeting Planners, November 1, 2020

• The percentage of planners with a request for proposal in progress and with at least one future face-to-face meeting declined slightly to 45% and 70%– down from 49% and 74%, respectively
• The percentage of planners who believe they will resume face-to-face meetings by the end of the year declined to 10% this week
• Looking into 2021, fewer than four in 10 (37%) planners are targeting the first half of 2021 to resume face-to-face meetings, with the majority (27%) targeting Q2

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